MY 2014 QUEBEC ELECTION PREDICTION

So much for all the polls, predictions from the pundits, media, journalist and so on. Just to add another 10 cents to the process here is how I predict the election will play out on the evening of April 7th. I believe it will not go as many are predicting. Check back to see how accurate or far off I was.


I PREDICT A MINORITY LIBERAL GOVERNMENT

SNAP SHOT OF QUEBEC NATIONAL ASSEMBLY AT ELECTION CALL MARCH 2014
WITH FINAL 2014 ELECTION PREDICTIONS;

THE BREAKDOWN BY DISTRICT:

THE NO MAJORITY PRINCIPLE

My feeling is that the numbers will be significantly skewed. I do not believe at this point that the PQ will be decimated. They will be significantly reduced from their previous seat number of 54. At this point however I do not believe they will be wiped off the political map as many militants from other parties had hoped for. I believe this for two specific reasons:

1. The remaining uncertainty of the trustworthiness of the Liberal Party and the corruption scandals which continue to surrounded it. This I believe will cause hesitancy in the voting public to give a majority mandate to the Liberals.

2. The lack of overall conviction on the part of the electors that the CAQ could form a new government. Their lack of experience and the ''one man show'' of Legault makes it highly unlikely that enough of the population would put the CAQ into power.

There is no doubt that this election campaign has been a difficult one to read and predict. Just when you think a trend is developing it seems to go the opposite way. To many variances in the political playing field has made it so the elector has not come to a 100% convinced choice and this only days from the vote.

THE CAT IN THE HAT POSSIBILITY:

This is a long shot but one M. Legault and the CAQ are hoping for. One could more commonly refer to it as the ''Jack Layton'' effect or the ''Bloc extinction'' event. This is where the Federal NDP basically erased the Bloc Quebecois from the Map in the 2011 Canadian Federal Election. There are many in the CAQ who are hoping that enough of the Quebec electors are fed up with the ''same old, same old'' and will make a move to redefine the Quebec political landscape. There is always a possibility of this happening but I feel the entrenchment of old liberal and PQ guard will not be willing to go as far as to put the CAQ into power. The BLOC had only been in existence for 21 years before the disastrous events of 2011. In all reality their influence and weight in the Federal arena had rendered Quebec virtually invisible on the Federal Political scene. The likely hood of this occurring in the Provincial election is less likely due to the fact the CAQ has had little influence on current policy and has only been active since 2011 which is a mere infant in political life.

THE CAT IN THE HAT POSSIBILITY PART II

Quebecers have had enough of Referendums, separation, and the famous ''Charte des valeurs'' (Values Charter). That they are tired of the same old Parti Quebecois. That they no longer want to discuss issues surrounding separation and want a focus full time on the economy, debt, education, health care, etc.. If this was to truly play out the PQ could find themselves with less seats then at any time since their existence and much fewer seats then I have predicted here. If there is a mass exodus from the party this will play more in favor of the CAQ then the Liberals. This however could push tight races into the Liberals hands allowing them to form a slight majority government. I believe this is unlikely.

FINAL WORD:

Well you actually have the final word. So no matter what the outcome use your democratic privilege and go out and vote for whoever best represents your values and ideals. It is an opportunity no one should take for granted.