My own predictions were far off. 3 days before the election I predicted a Liberal Minority Government caused by a surge in support for the CAQ. I had predicted 32 seats for the PQ. They ended up with 30. I believed the PLQ would get 55 seats they secured 70 and the CAQ finished with 22 where I had predicted 34. Other than how the PQ finished I clearly underestimated how Quebecers would vote.
So it ends. The Sovereignty threat that struck fear in the hearts of Anglos and French Federalist. The Introduction of a ''Values Charter'' that struck fear in the heart of immigrants recently landed in Quebec and those who have been here for centuries all went away last night...for at least 4 years. Last night the people of Quebec spoke and decided that they to would not live in fear nor in a divisive environment. To the great relief of many the PQ was reduced to its lowest numbers in 30 years. Its leader Mme. Marois unable to retain her own seat in the Assembly. So marks the end of 18 months of power. Perhaps more importantly it marks the end of the PQ as we have know it. But that is for a later Blog.
Today the Province awakes to a Majority Liberal government one which ruled from 2003-2012. One which succeeded in creating a level of economic, cultural and linguistic harmony. At the same time it was marred by scandals surrounding corruptions of its officials related to political payouts and kickbacks. It also had to deal with the Student uprising which saw the province paralyzed for numerous months in the spring of 2012 forcing the Liberals to introduce controversial Bill 78. All of this ultimately lead to the calling of the 2012 election. Which saw the Liberals lose their grip on power and brought the political career of its then leader Jean Charest to an end. Today with the new Leader Philippe Couillard the Liberals begin anew. The next few months will be trying as the Commission Charbonneau and UPAC continues their work in studying corruption in the Construction industry; an area where the Liberals are susceptible to scrutiny.
What do these election results say. Well before all the Liberal supports get to carried away with the victory keep this in mind. 60% of Quebec voters did not vote for the Liberals. There is a message in this. It is a clear one. Quebecers more then ever are divided about the direction of this province. That what one party or the other has to sell the buyer is not interested in purchasing. Quebecers have a tendency to vote against something, not for something. There is an underlying current of dissatisfaction with the direction the province is going. There is no doubt that people are struggling. The economy is not strong, other social issues such as Health care, Education and the Debt weigh heavily on the voters minds. There are those who can justifiably claim that the Liberals won by default. That the PQ's resurrection of the Referendum and their ill fated attempt to introduce the Charter of Values pushed many of those disillusioned voters further away from the Party. The CAQ who made a valiant push in the last 10 days of the election on the coat tails of their leader Francois Legault still lack the core team to convince voters that they deserve anything more then 24% of popular support. QS played little or no role other then solidifying its position in 2 very clearly defined districts where the residents there support sovereignty. They also managed to slid out an additional seat by 91 votes. All of this lead the Liberals to the position of power. It was not as a result of their platform or the charisma of its leader. For liberal supporters to believe anything else would be a mistake on their part.
Were there messages that were heard loud and clear? Absolutely! It was also disappointing to here Members of the PQ claim ignorance as to why they were being decimated as the election results became obvious. For it is this ignorance itself which lead to voters sending the clearest messages of the evening. Unfortunately the PQ did not seem to be getting the message and this will be its biggest challenge in rebuilding itself. For the sake of those PQ Politicians and their Militant supporters here were the biggest messages of the evening.
* 70% of the population is not interested in a referendum or any discussion surrounding Sovereignty.
* Your Charter of Values was seen for exactly what it was. A Charter designed to assimilate anyone who was not white, french speaking, and christian. With the ultimate goal of creating a winning environment for a referendum.
* People want federal Provincial cooperation on issues which most affect them. They do not want a war of words and posturing with the Feds, they want concrete action and results.
* People wanted to know how you were going to act on issues like the economy, education, health care, debt and other pressing social issues.
So 4 years of Liberal rule begins today. Here is a little cautionary note to the Liberal supporters. The next years will not be easy. Quebec is strongly divided. it will take enormous work, statesmanship and bipartisan ship to right this boat. The Liberals are going to get tarnished by the Charbonneau Commission and UPAC which will lead to even less trust in the Politicians who now hold power. The Economy in this province needs serious attention as do Social issues. No longer can we afford to ''charge'' the cost and pass it along to future generations. For all intended purpose the province is bankrupt. It will take painful decisions and measures to set the province back in a positive financial direction. There is no short cut here or miracle fix. The challenges facing the Liberal Party and its leader are massive. All the while that the Liberals are working and struggling to fix the issues the PQ will be slowly rebuilding. It will have 4 years to define its new image. Anyone who writes them off has not been living in Quebec for long enough. During that same time the CAQ will try to build confidence with the voter to show that indeed they could be a legitimate option for a future government.
Liberals are best to take note that during the next 4 years that 60% of the population will be watching very closely and waiting for 2018.
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